New analysis from short-term rental analytics firm Key Data shows that Airbnb’s October 1 cancellation policy change could affect nearly 40% of U.S. cancellations next quarter, based on last year’s booking patterns.
Starting in October, Airbnb is retiring its Strict cancellation policy. Guests will now be guaranteed at least a 50% refund for cancellations made 7–30 days before arrival, and in some cases full refunds depending on the host’s chosen settings.
Key Findings
Key Data's analysis of Q4 2024 cancellation patterns shows:
- 16% of cancellations occurred 7–14 days before check-in. Under the previous Strict policy, these guests received no refund; starting in October, they will receive 50%.
- 23% of cancellations happened 14–30 days before check-in. These guests previously received 50% refunds but will now be guaranteed at least half, with many receiving full refunds.
- Combined, 39% of cancellations fell into the 7–30 day window where refund outcomes will shift this year.
The pattern remained consistent throughout the year, with data from the 12 months ending August 2025 showing 13% of cancellations occurring 7-14 days out and 20% happening 14-30 days before check-in, representing roughly one in three cancellations overall.
This consistency suggests the upcoming policy change will have a sustained effect beyond the Q4 holiday season.
Revenue Impact
For travelers, the shift creates greater booking protection, reducing financial risk when cancelling weeks ahead. For property managers, the data signals that a significant share of cancellation-related revenue, which previously remained with hosts, will now flow back to guests.
Melanie Brown, VP of Data Insights at Key Data, noted: “Almost 40% of US Airbnb cancellations last Q4 happened in the 7–30 day window where refund terms are now changing.” and that “Under the new policies, guest behavior may also shift, with more travelers booking earlier, but also more cancellations closer to check-in, knowing more refunds are available.”
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