Zero percent. That's how many vacation rental property managers expect competition to decline in 2026. A Key Data survey of 244 professional property managers representing over 43,000 vacation rentals across 142 US markets shows an industry doubling down on operational efficiency and rate optimization. Yet on the traveler side, demand for hyper-personalized, experience-driven trips has never been higher. The managers who bridge this gap will capture premium revenue; those who don't risk commodification in an increasingly crowded market.
What Travelers Want in 2026
Booking.com just released its 2026 Travel Predictions, based on insights from more than 29,000 travelers across 33 countries, and Expedia released its Trends in Travel report covering the unique experiences, trending destinations, and innovative stays travelers are chasing in 2026.
The numbers are striking. “Set-jetting” (travel inspired by TV shows and movies) has become mainstream, with 81% of Gen Z and Millennial travelers now planning getaways based on what they've seen on screen. But personalization extends beyond pop culture. 39% percent say their travel decisions are influenced by horoscopes or cosmic rhythms, and 69% are looking to travel with a romantic partner, coworker, or new friend specifically to test compatibility.
Niche experiences are also exploding across categories. 84% of travelers express interest in staying on or near a farm, with a 300% year-over-year spike in guest reviews mentioning farms on Vrbo. Literary retreats are gaining similar momentum, with 91% of travelers interested in trips centered around reading, relaxation, and quality time with loved ones, and mentions of reading-related terms in Vrbo reviews surged 285% year-over-year. Of course, sports tourism is also rising, as 57% of travelers say they're likely to attend a local sporting event while traveling, climbing to 68% among Gen Z and Millennials.
What Property Managers Are Actually Doing
The operational reality looks starkly different. The US average daily rate held flat at $321 in the first half of 2025, while paid occupancy for Q1 2026 is pacing 1% below Q1 2025, according to Key Data’s 2026 Vacation Rental Industry Outlook. At the same time, competition has reached saturation. Not a single surveyed property manager expects competitive pressure to ease in 2026, and 73% cite both operations/staffing and revenue/market pressures as their top constraints.
The industry's strategic priorities reflect a defensive stance. Property managers ranked their top five strategies as: increasing marketing and distribution reach, adjusting pricing strategies, improving guest experience, strengthening owner relationships, and hiring and training staff - placing guest experience third behind marketing and pricing optimization.
The industry's OTA dependency also remains entrenched: 67% of managers plan to maintain their current level of OTA reliance in 2026, with only 19% planning to reduce it. Yet this could be one of the largest areas for improvement as direct bookings represent 26% of reservations but 38% of revenue, outperforming OTAs on nightly rate, stay length, and lead time. For example: in the first half of 2025, reservations made directly saw nightly booked rates of $351, stay lengths of 5.4 days, and 76 day booking windows. In comparison, Vrbo saw nightly rates of $335, stay lengths of 4.6 days, and 62 day booking windows, and Airbnb saw nightly rates of $248, 4 day stay lengths, and 36 day booking windows.
The Fork in the Road
The contrast couldn't be sharper: an industry focused on operational efficiency is meeting travelers hungry for transformative experiences. As Ben Harrell, US Managing Director at Booking.com, observes: "In 2026, travel will focus less on destinations and more on individual identities".
The data tells us that success in 2026 will belong to property managers who view themselves as experience curators rather than just real estate operators. Those who differentiate through curated stays and identity-driven experiences will weather the competitive storm. Those competing purely on price and distribution efficiency risk becoming commodities in an oversaturated market.
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