A new analysis from hostAI suggests STR operators are paying significant OTA commissions on guests they have already acquired. Host AI calls this problem “repeat guest leakage.”
HostAI analyzed 231,150 confirmed bookings from 115 vacation rental operators in 2025, spanning portfolios from one to nearly 600 listings. The core finding was that repeat guests make up a meaningful share of revenue, typically between 5-8% and as high as 26% for some operators.
Yet, 77% of that repeat guest revenue still flows through online travel agencies like Airbnb and Vrbo. That means operators are paying OTA fees for a second time when a past guest returns.
The First Booking Channel Strongly Predicts where guests rebook
The analysis shows that where a guest books their first stay strongly predicts where they will book again. It's intuitive that guests who book direct the first time usually book direct the second time, and guests who book through an OTA usually return to that same platform to book again.
As operators scale, this dynamic becomes more pronounced. Enterprise operators with more than 150 listings generate more repeat guests overall, but over 80% of repeat bookings still go through OTAs. While smaller operators keep a higher share of repeat guests booking directly (roughly 50%), often due to more personal guest relationships.
Case Study: A 15% Direct Mix Captures 84% of Repeat Revenue
The report highlights one case study that illustrates how this leakage can be reduced without becoming “direct-first.” A luxury operator in Florida with more than 30 listings generated only 15% of their total bookings through its direct website. Despite that modest share of total direct bookings, the operator was able to capture 84% of its repeat guest revenue directly.
According to the data, one in four direct bookings for this operator came from repeat guests, while on Airbnb, the comparable figure is one repeat booking for every 67 stays.
HostAI points to two reasons for this result. First, the operator invests in paid search to bring in new guests directly, creating a pool of customers who are more likely to rebook directly. Second, the operator used post-stay email marketing to stay in touch with past guests and keep the brand top of mind.
What This Means for Operator Profits
The revenue impact can be significant. A 30 property portfolio generating $4.5 million in annual revenue with an 8% repeat booking rate produces roughly $360,000 in repeat guest revenue. Capturing 84% of that revenue directly, instead of paying a typical 15.5% OTA fee, would add roughly $46,000 in annual revenue.
Across the broader dataset, operators with higher direct booking share consistently showed lower repeat guest leakage. Those with less than 5% direct bookings lost nearly 90% of repeat revenue to OTAs, while operators with 30% or more direct share reduced leakage to around 10%.
The data shows a compelling argument to invest in direct booking infrastructure and build a brand, without forgetting the basics of providing a great stay and excellent guest communication. While the data does not prove cause and effect, the pattern appears consistent across markets and portfolio sizes.
.webp)
