A new report from Key Data shows that the U.S. vacation rental market is regaining momentum. Pricing power is strong heading into the winter holidays, but operators will only capture that upside if they adapt to guests who are booking later and staying for shorter periods.
Melanie Brown, VP of Data Analytics and Insights at Key Data, said, “The forward ADR trends for November and December represent the strongest rate growth we've seen all year.”
Holiday Pricing Is Leading the Recovery
Even though November bookings are slightly softer, revenue numbers for the season look strong.
- December RevPAR is projected to rise 7% year over year.
- December ADRs are pacing 6% higher at an average of $424.
- November ADRs are also pacing 5% higher year over year.
What the Data Suggests: Holiday demand is being driven mainly by higher prices, not longer stays or earlier bookings. Travelers appear willing to pay more for winter getaway dates.
Guests Are Booking Later and Staying for Less Time
Travelers are waiting longer to book and choosing shorter trips.
- Booking windows are compressing and are down about 5% across most of 2025.
- December booking windows dropped from 123 days to 117 days.
- Average stays in December are down from 6.6 nights to 6.0 nights, a 9% decline year over year.
What the Data Suggests: Demand is coming in later and in smaller blocks. This creates tighter booking cycles and more frequent turnovers.
Airbnb Holds the Most Volume, Direct Bookings Make the Most Money
Where travelers book is shifting.
- Airbnb has strengthened its dominance, now accounting for 47% of all reservations in Q3 2025, a 6% increase over three years.
- Vrbo has seen its reservation share fall to 21%.
- Direct bookings: While the share of direct bookings has slipped to 24%, they remain the most profitable channel, accounting for 36% of all revenue. Direct bookings typically yield higher ADRs, longer stays, and zero commission fees.
What the Data Suggests: Airbnb brings the biggest share of guests, but direct channels still create the highest revenue per booking.
Some Regions Are Growing Faster Than Others
Not all markets are recovering at the same pace. High-performing regions are successfully commanding higher rates, while others face pricing pressure.
- New England: RevPAR +5% year over year
- Hawaiian Islands: RevPAR +5%
- Rocky Mountains: RevPAR +4%
- Midwest US: RevPAR +4%
- Southeast: RevPAR is down 1% due to rate pressure and fast supply growth.
What the Data Suggests: Know your market. If you're in a high-demand region, premium positioning and delivering an exceptional guest experience can justify higher rates. If you're in a challenged market, differentiation is key. Focus on unique amenities, highlight value, and use data-driven pricing to stay competitive without sacrificing your bottom line.
Key Data’s report shows a market that’s recovering and being shaped by later bookings, shorter stays, and strong holiday pricing.
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