I’ve been thinking a lot about where short-term rentals are headed.
Airbnb’s about 16 years old now. Here's how I break down its evolution, and what I believe is coming next:
STR 1.0 (2009–2018): The Gold Rush Era
Airbnb made vacation rentals mainstream. This created so much new demand, but supply lagged.
- Even low-quality listings turned a huge profit.
- Good listings made a killing.
- The guest experience was wildly inconsistent - great one trip, awful the next.
STR 2.0 (2018–Now): The Market Matures
Three major shifts reshaped the landscape:
- Explosion of Supply
The general public realized that listing on Airbnb could be a huge money-maker. Homeowners jumped in. Entrepreneurs raised $ to buy Airbnbs, or launched “Airbnb arbitrage” operations. The number of Airbnbs ballooned. - Professionalization of Hosts
Many hardworking professionals left 9–5 jobs to manage STRs full-time. Gurus and online courses standardized “what works,” which raised the operational bar across the board. Becoming a top 10% listing now requires serious strategy. - Airbnb Becomes the Dominant Platform
Airbnb began flexing its power: Low-quality listings were removed, and platform consistency improved. But as a public company, Airbnb shifted toward guest-centric policies to drive bookings and revenue often at the expense of hosts. Additionally, Airbnb has become so popular that cities began crafting regulations specifically against Airbnbs.
The Result:
Profit Margins compressed. Listing quality has improved across the board. The environment is tougher than ever and regulations are a major risk. Gone are the gold rush days, it’s harder than ever to stand out.
STR 3.0 (2025+): Experience and Community
The next wave of breakout listings will share two traits:
- Niche Experiences
Ultra successful Airbnbs will be Experienced based and Community based. Properties will be tailored to specific groups that want a specific experience (ex: guys on a golf trip). The property will cultivate such an amazing experience that it creates raving fans who can't wait to tell their friends about it. These aren’t just nice places to sleep, now the property is the destination. - Direct Marketing & Direct Booking
These hosts will ditch dependency on Airbnb. Instead, they’ll run niche-targeted ads, drive traffic to their direct booking sites, and build email lists for re-engagement. Platform fees go down, while control, profit margins and occupancy rates go up.
Key Insight:
Unique experiences give hosts pricing power. They let you escape the race-to-the-bottom dynamics of crowded Airbnb search results.
Case Study: Birdie Houses
Here’s a perfect example of what STR 3.0 looks like in action.
Target Audience: Golfers
Locations: Myrtle Beach, Pinehurst, and Scottsdale: three of the most popular golf destinations in the USA.
What Makes It Work:
- Experience-first amenities: On-site golf simulators, putting greens, short game practice areas, an outdoor bar, barrel sauna, and golf-themed decor throughout.
- Direct booking machine: 94% of reservations come direct, driven by 110K+ Instagram followers and a great content strategy.
- Clear niche positioning: Every detail, from marketing language to design choices, speaks specifically to golfers. (When booking, they don’t ask for the number of “guests” - they ask for the number of “golfers.” That’s the level of specificity I’m talking about.)
Check out the results:
- That calendar shows 77% occupancy at $1,000+ ADR - before the month even starts. Odds are strong they'll land another last-minute booking and push the occupancy rate number even higher.
- And October’s already 61% booked at $1,500+ ADR.
- Plus their Concierge Services are likely adding tons of $$$ in upsells.
This is what happens when you go all-in on a niche, build an unforgettable experience, and take control of your marketing. Perfect execution Birdie Houses.
